Between ‘Bloody’ and ‘One Man’ Revolutions

The leading titans of President Jonathan’s Presidential Advisory Council- its Chairman, General TY Danjuma and the Secretary, Prof. Ben Nwabueze- sparred openly in Lagos on Wednesday on the way forward for Nigeria. The event was the public presentation of Nwabueze’s new book: “Colonialism in Africa: Ancient and Modern”.

Professor Nwabueze, after analyzing the governance failure of the Nigerian state, concluded that only a bloody revolution can save Nigeria from certain doom. General Danjuma agreed with his analysis but differed on the conclusion. He argued that a good leader will save us from the need for bloody revolution and we can get that leader today.

Let us hear these key shapers of public policy in Jonathan’s government. Professor Nwabueze indicated his preference for revolution because “We need a revolutionary change, a bloody one and those who survive will pick the pieces…corruption has eaten deep and everybody is involved, only a bloody revolution will remedy the situation.

That was how France was saved… if you read about the French revolution, that was what saved France and Europe is what it is today because of the French revolution. I cannot see the country being saved other than through a bloody revolution”. Africa’s most cerebral and famous constitutional lawyer dismissed the federal legislature as “House of thieves”.

This realism is magical and fascinating. What does General Danjuma think? He agrees with everything Nwabueze thinks is wrong with Nigeria. He would also dismiss the federal legislature as something despicable, may be not in the acerbic metaphor of Prof. Nwabueze. But he held out hope that we can negotiate the bend with less than a bloody revolution.

He adopted the famous aphorism that the revolution consumes her own to argue that “Revolution is exceedingly costly. It is a very costly means of transformation. I am an optimist as far as our country is concerned. I believe one man in position of authority can transform our country. Only that we have not been lucky to have such a man”. A very simple and attractive thesis: just get the special one and everything will be new again.

The general and the professor may think they are centuries apart each other but they are incredibly on the same page. They believe Nigeria needs an urgent, quick and radical change to have any real chance of surviving these fangs of death. The General understandably abhors the word ‘revolution’, especially when it is conjoined with the word ‘bloody’.

He has witnessed and committed so much blood-letting himself that he would naturally cringe at the thought of such macabre theatre round about him. As one of those Nigerians who left government and got very rich it is reasonable to suppose he would be one of the casualties of such bloodletting. So, why would the headhunter beckon on headhunters when his head is pricey?

Nwabueze is right that nothing short of revolution would save Nigeria. As a doctoral student in the United States during President Obasanjo’s first term in office I had wondered why his hullabaloo war against corruption had not consumed humans in a thoroughly corrupt country like Nigeria. No heads rolled and yet the rhetoric drenched political communication.

In spite of his swashbuckling and warrior governance style Obasanjo did not liquidate the thieves who populated his party and his government. Obasanjo lapped up every theory of change in the rule book of the World Bank. He cavorted with all reformers from multilateral financial institutions but bothered not to hit hard at corruption. He knew what we did not.

Corruption is an art of governance. It is the directive principle of the establishment which President Obasanjo and hundreds of military-contractor statesmen greatly value and protect.
So, the sense of Professor Nwabueze’s thesis is that Nigeria’s failed state is not an accident; it is the logical outworking of the structure of the Nigerian state. If the Nigerian state works according to its structural integrity it produces the failure we are familiar with. So, to reverse things we need to shake things up; we need a new paradigm, a tectonic shift that only a violent change can broker.

Nigerian elites are too comfortable with the revelries and so deeply entrenched in the stupor to hear the thundering in the horizon. There is a deep-set institutional stupor that even mere revision is an uphill task. Only a revolutionary ferment can cut the Gordian knot and free Nigeria from the burden of its ugly past. The socio-economic context is ready for a revolution.

What is missing is the human element. Would-be revolutionaries are easily coopted because the Nigerian corrupt state is a genius in inclusivity. This is the meaning of the concept of ‘democratizing corruption’ which Nigeria bequeaths to the world of politics. But, General Danjuma is also correct. In as much as Nigeria needs a revolution, it needs not be bloody.

As much as we abhor the pseudo-heroic and false messianic complex that beclouds social imagination and de-freezes social action, one man and a team can make the difference. Quick and radical transformation can come via one visionary man or woman supported by a dedicated revolutionary team.

Nothing says that one visionary and her team cannot be the product of electoral politics. This is where I accept Danjuma’s antithesis.    But this antithesis needs a synthesis. Danjuma’s civil revolution would be a pipedream if the politics of Nigeria continues in the doldrums of the praxis of PDP and its ineffective clones.

There must be a disruption in the politics of Nigeria to move beyond the corruption and murderous incompetence of public governance. The politics of the last 5 decades which the charitable General is a principal participant will not cut it.

Literally, the tables have to be turned and the bazaar ended abruptly. Will the General approve this? Blood may not flow.

But the big dudes will be forced to disgorge the big meat in their mouths and the plates will be rearranged. Will the General approve this? There you go!

The bottom line is: Nigeria is doomed except a revolution happens soonest. Yes, the revolution need not be bloody. But, in the minimum it must clear the deck for a new politics, a politics that is defined by real citizenship marked by socio-economic welfare and accountability. Danjuma’s anointed saint in the shining armor will not be any of the pretenders he knows. And if by inscrutable destiny one of the present thieving elites is the anointed one, he or she must a Gorbachev and implode the system that has nurtured him.

Dr. Sam Amadi,Abuja, Nigeria